I write high-speed, strategy-driven Military Sci-Fi & Space Opera, where cunning commanders, elite soldiers, and alien warlords fight for survival on the fringes of space. Subscribe to my newsletter for my latest updates!
Will Humanity Live Beyond Earth by 2076?
Will Humanity Live Beyond Earth by 2076?(5 minute read) When America celebrates its 300th birthday in 2076, will human beings be living on other worlds? Not merely visiting them for a few days, but living there permanently. Working, raising families, building industries and gradually creating communities that no longer depend entirely upon Earth. For most of my lifetime, that idea belonged firmly to science fiction. Astronauts reached the Moon more than fifty years ago, yet only twelve people ever walked on its surface, and nobody has returned since 1972. For decades, the future of space exploration appeared to have stalled. That is beginning to change. NASA’s Artemis programme is intended to return astronauts to the Moon and establish a sustained presence there. The current plan involves repeated missions, robotic exploration and the gradual development of a base near the lunar south pole, where permanently shadowed craters may contain deposits of water ice. Water may prove to be one of the most valuable resources in space. Astronauts obviously need it to drink, but water can also be separated into oxygen and hydrogen. The oxygen can support life, while hydrogen and oxygen can be used as rocket fuel. If future explorers can obtain those materials on the Moon rather than carrying them from Earth, the economics of space travel could change dramatically. Launching anything from Earth is difficult because our planet has strong gravity. Rockets must carry enormous quantities of fuel merely to lift their own fuel, spacecraft and cargo into orbit. The Moon has only about one-sixth of Earth’s gravity. A lunar base capable of producing fuel could eventually become a filling station and construction site for missions travelling farther into the Solar System. The earliest permanent settlements will probably not resemble cities. They may begin as a few connected habitats occupied by rotating teams of astronauts, engineers and scientists. Much of the base could be buried beneath lunar soil to protect its inhabitants from radiation, extreme temperature changes and tiny meteorites. Life there would be difficult. The Moon has no breathable atmosphere, almost no protection from radiation and nights that can last roughly two Earth weeks. Every breath, meal and pint of water would depend upon machines continuing to function. Even so, by 2076 I think a permanently occupied lunar settlement is highly likely. The more difficult question is whether people will be living on Mars. Mars has several advantages over the Moon. Its day is only slightly longer than ours, it possesses vast deposits of water ice, and it has enough gravity to make walking more natural. It also has an atmosphere, although it is far too thin and contains almost no oxygen. Unfortunately, Mars is enormously farther away. A journey there currently takes many months. Communication signals can require more than twenty minutes to travel in each direction, making real-time conversation with Earth impossible. Emergency assistance would be unavailable, and returning home could depend upon waiting months for the planets to move into suitable positions. The first people on Mars would therefore be more isolated than any explorers in human history. They would also face radiation, dust, extreme cold and the psychological pressure of living inside sealed habitats millions of miles from home. Robots will almost certainly prepare the way before them. They may identify water deposits, construct landing areas, bury habitats, install power systems and manufacture fuel. NASA describes its lunar program as preparation for eventual human missions to Mars, and the same principle will apply there: machines will establish the foundations before large numbers of people arrive. By 2076, Mars may contain a small settlement. I am less convinced that it will contain a large, self-sufficient city. A community that can survive without regular shipments from Earth would need to produce its own food, replacement machinery, medicines, electronics and almost everything required for modern life. That is a far greater challenge than simply landing astronauts. The growth of human activity in space may therefore happen much closer to Earth first. The International Space Station will not operate forever. NASA is already supporting the development of privately owned stations that could replace some of its functions. Companies are designing orbital facilities for scientific research, manufacturing, tourism and government missions, with NASA intending to become one customer among many. By 2076, dozens of stations may orbit Earth. Some could serve as hotels for wealthy travelers. Others may be laboratories or factories producing materials that are difficult to manufacture under gravity. Human organs, medicines, crystals, advanced electronics and unusual metal alloys may all benefit from production in microgravity. If those products become valuable enough, orbital industry could expand rapidly. That may be the crucial turning point. Exploration is usually paid for by governments. Permanent settlement is more likely when people can make money from it. The earliest European voyages across the oceans were partly scientific and political, but lasting colonies developed because trade, land and resources gave people economic reasons to remain. Space may follow the same pattern. Tourism could provide some income, but mining and manufacturing may eventually become far more important. Asteroids contain metals, minerals and water. Some possess large quantities of iron, nickel and other valuable materials, although claims that individual asteroids are worth trillions of dollars are misleading because bringing enormous amounts of metal to Earth would drastically reduce its price. The more practical use may be to leave those materials in space. Water extracted from asteroids could supply spacecraft and be turned into fuel. Metals could be used to construct stations, solar-power satellites and enormous ships without launching every component from Earth. In some ways it might make sense to develop asteroid bases first and then use these to supply colonies on Mars. The European Space Agency argues that future exploration will require humanity to obtain resources beyond Earth because transporting everything from our planet would be prohibitively difficult. Robotic mining machines would probably perform most of the work. They would not need air, food or comfortable accommodation, and could operate in places too dangerous for people. Human beings might supervise them from stations nearby or, eventually, from the Moon. This raises another question. Who will own the resources of space? If a company mines an asteroid, does it own what it removes? Can a nation claim territory around a lunar base? What happens when two countries want access to the same deposit of water ice? International agreements already attempt to establish principles for peaceful and responsible exploration, but law often develops after technology has created the problem. NASA says that seventy nations had signed the Artemis Accords by July 2026, demonstrating how many countries now expect space activity to become economically and politically important. Space exploration is therefore unlikely to be led solely by governments or private companies. Governments will fund science, establish laws and support projects too expensive or risky for businesses. Private companies will design rockets, stations, habitats and services, competing to reduce costs and find profitable uses. The relationship may resemble aviation. Governments created many of the early technologies and built airports, navigation systems and safety rules. Private airlines then turned flying into an ordinary commercial activity. By 2076, travelling into orbit may still be expensive, but perhaps no more extraordinary than international air travel appeared a century earlier. There is also a deeper reason for expanding beyond Earth. Our planet faces dangers. An asteroid impact, nuclear war, engineered disease or some future catastrophe we have not yet imagined could threaten civilization. A settlement on another world would not immediately protect humanity because it would remain dependent upon Earth for decades. Eventually, however, a genuinely self-sufficient population beyond Earth could become an insurance policy for our species. I don’t believe that means abandoning our planet. Earth will remain the most comfortable and valuable home humanity possesses. Even a damaged Earth would probably be easier to inhabit than Mars. But we shouldn’t treat space settlement as an excuse to neglect climate change or other problems here. Instead, expansion into space could strengthen Earth. It may provide scientific discoveries, resources, energy and new industries while giving humanity greater protection against catastrophe. As a science fiction writer, I naturally find this possibility fascinating. Return to the Galaxy imagines humanity spread among the stars, building fleets and settlements far beyond its original home. We won’t reach that stage by 2076. Faster-than-light travel remains fiction, and even the nearest star lies more than four light-years away. But fifty years may be enough for the first permanent steps. By America’s 300th birthday, I think that human beings will live continuously on the Moon. A smaller settlement may thrive on Mars. Commercial stations and factories may circle Earth, while robots mine resources and construct structures far beyond the reach of today’s astronauts. The populations may still be small. The achievement would be huge. For the first time in history, humanity would no longer be a species confined entirely to one world. Till next time, Brian BA Gillies Pre-Order your copy of Unite the Galaxy TodayUnite the Galaxy, the next instalment in the Return to the Galaxy series, is now available to pre-order on Amazon. The story is racing toward the series finale, and the stakes have never been higher for Ewan, Shona, Velal and the rest of the crew. If you’ve been following the journey from the beginning, you can pre-order your copy now and have it delivered automatically on release day.
***If you've been meaning to dive into the Return to the Galaxy Universe, now’s your chance!Whether you're a new reader or just haven’t grabbed your copies yet, now’s the time to catch up on the award-winning series readers are calling “better than Scalzi” and “the best book since Heinlein died.” If you haven’t started the series yet, Book 1 is still available to buy for 99 cents or read for free on Kindle Unlimited:
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BA Gillies
I write high-speed, strategy-driven Military Sci-Fi & Space Opera, where cunning commanders, elite soldiers, and alien warlords fight for survival on the fringes of space. Subscribe to my newsletter for my latest updates!
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Feed the World? (5 minute read) How will we feed perhaps ten billion people in 2076? It sounds like an enormous challenge. The world's population has already passed eight billion, climate change is making some traditional farming areas hotter and drier, and hundreds of millions of people still do not always have enough to eat. Yet when I look at how agriculture has changed during my own lifetime, I find myself surprisingly optimistic. We are becoming much better not only at producing food,...