The Long Game

(4-5 minute read)

Over the last couple of weeks, a lot of commentators have been focusing on what we might expect to see happening in 2026. I decided to go long instead and look at what we might see by the end of this century.

Not in a science-fiction sense. No flying cars or immortality treatments. But in terms of real, observable trends that are already locked in. The kind that unfold slowly, attract little attention, and massively reshape the world.

If you fast-forward roughly seventy-four years, about the same time span as from the end of the Second World War to today, two forces stand out as almost impossible to reverse.

The first is the global shift away from fossil fuels toward alternative energy.
The second is falling birth rates across much of the developed world, alongside continued population growth in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

Together, these trends will redefine power, wealth, and stability by the end of the century.

Energy Becomes Abundant and Unremarkable

For most of modern history, energy was scarce, expensive, and geopolitical. Nations fought over it, traded for it, and built influence around it.

That era is ending.

Solar, wind, nuclear, and possibly fusion will push energy toward something closer to a basic utility. Cheap, reliable, and increasingly local. Most advanced economies will generate the majority of what they need internally.

As energy becomes abundant, it becomes less dramatic. Fewer alliances hinge on it. Fewer conflicts revolve around it. Energy stops being the central question of national survival.

Population Decline Changes the Shape of Society

At the same time, birth rates continue to fall across Europe, North America, East Asia, and parts of South America.

This does not just mean fewer children. It means fewer workers, fewer consumers, and fewer taxpayers. Over time, the economic focus shifts from expansion to maintenance.

Shopping centres close. Housing demand flattens. Infrastructure built for growth is repurposed for longevity. Economic success becomes less about scale and more about efficiency, automation, and productivity.

Societies age. That brings stability in some areas and fragility in others.

Immigration Becomes Structural Rather Than Ideological

Ageing societies still need labour.

They need carers, technicians, builders, engineers, and service workers. This creates a persistent tension between political resistance to immigration and economic dependence on it.

By the end of the century, immigration does not disappear. It becomes more selective, more managed, and more openly tied to labour needs rather than moral arguments. More countries will follow the Singapore model of letting skilled workers in on 3-year work visas and unskilled workers in on 1-year work passes. (Renewable based upon what those countries see as good behaviour.)

This tension never fully resolves. It simply becomes permanent.

Africa and the Middle East Remain Demographically Young

While much of the developed world ages, parts of Africa and the Middle East remain young for decades longer.

This creates pressure. Large populations require education, jobs, and opportunity. Where governance and institutions rise to meet that demand, growth follows. Where they do not, instability persists.

The outcome is uneven. Some countries leap forward. Others fall behind. Youth alone does not guarantee prosperity. Education and institutions matter far more.

Technology Accelerates the Divide

Scientific progress is not slowing. It is accelerating.

Advances in artificial intelligence, materials science, medicine, automation, and energy systems compound on one another. Countries that invest heavily in education and research benefit disproportionately.

Their populations remain productive even as they shrink. Their institutions adapt. Their economies stay competitive.

Countries that fail to educate broadly, or that allow science to stagnate, fall further behind. Cheap energy alone does not save them. Technology without understanding creates dependency rather than strength.

The future rewards competence.

Education Becomes Strategic Infrastructure

By the end of the century, education matters more than population size.

States that treat education as infrastructure produce adaptable citizens who can work alongside machines rather than be replaced by them. Lifelong learning becomes normal. Static careers disappear.

Nations that prioritise religious education while their fossil-fuel relevance declines are likely to struggle the most. A large population with few resources and no technical skills is not a recipe for success.

The Mediterranean will likely become a battleground as illegal immigration becomes an even bigger problem for southern Europe

Humanity Turns Upward

One of the quieter shifts of the next century will be humanity’s expansion into the solar system.

Not science-fiction colonisation, but practical development. Mining, manufacturing, research, and energy generation move off planet. The Moon, near-Earth asteroids, and orbital platforms become economically relevant.

Western nations and China are best positioned to benefit, not because of ideology, but because of capital, technology, and institutional continuity.

Space does not replace Earth. It supplements it.

Conflict Does Not Disappear, It Evolves

War does not vanish. But it becomes less about resources and more about disruption.

Cyber operations, economic coercion, technological sabotage, and proxy conflicts dominate. Large industrial wars become rarer because they are inefficient and destabilising for everyone involved.

Stability becomes the ultimate strategic asset.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

Russia’s population is expected to shrink from roughly 145 million today, to 125 million by 2100. This steady decline stems from low birth rates, high mortality, and net out-migration in certain periods. A smaller population will present challenges for economic growth, labour supply, and national mobilisation.

China’s demographic trajectory is dramatic. After decades as the world’s most populous nation, China’s numbers are expected to fall from 1.4 billion today to around 630 million by 2100, a decline of more than half. This reflects extremely low fertility rates and an ageing society, factors that will reshape China’s economy, its workforce, and its global role.

While other countries shrink, the United Kingdom should see its population rise modestly. The UK’s population could increase from 69 million today to a peak of 80 million, thanks largely to sustained net migration that offsets low birth rates. The UK will age along with other developed nations, but retain enough demographic heft to remain economically significant.

The United States is the big winner. Its population is expected to grow from roughly 347 million today to a peak of 421 million people by the end of the century. That growth comes from a mix of births, immigration, and longevity, and helps the U.S. sustain a large labour force and economic base as other advanced economies age rapidly. Its technological prowess means that it is even better placed.

The population balance between China and the United States is set to change in a way that would have seemed improbable a generation ago. Today, the U.S. population stands at roughly 25% of China’s. By 2100, as China’s population contracts and America’s grows, that figure is projected to rise to around 67%.

The Long View

Little of this is dramatic. There is just slow, compounding change.

But by the time our grandchildren are old, the world will look very different. Energy will be cheap. Populations will be smaller in some places and larger in others. Technology will reward those who understand it. Space will be part of the economic system, not a novelty.

The future will not belong to the strongest or the loudest.

It will belong to those who adapt early and enthusiastically.

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If you’ve been following the journey so far, I’m very happy to say that the next chapter is almost here. Stand for the Galaxy, Book 6 in the Return to the Galaxy series, is now available for pre-order.

It will be published on January 15th.

This is the book where many of the long-running threads finally tighten: Earth steps onto the galactic stage in full view, old alliances strain under impossible pressure, and the cost of freedom becomes something humanity can no longer debate in theory. Ewan has always known this moment was coming. In Book 6, he has to decide what survives it.

Stand for the Galaxy

Book 6 of the Multi-Award-Winning Return to the Galaxy series

#1 Bestseller in Alien Invasion, Space Marines, Space Fleet, Space Opera, Galactic Empire, and more

Earth’s greatest fear has finally come true.

When humanity learns how to break gravity itself, the consequences are immediate and catastrophic. Rogue states unleash weapons that should not exist, cities burn in nuclear fire, and the fragile balance holding Earth together shatters overnight.

Admiral Ewan Scott always knew this day would come.

As governments mobilise against him, allies begin to doubt, and enemies close in from every direction. Ewan must decide how much freedom humanity can afford to lose if it is to survive at all.

Meanwhile, deep beneath an ancient asteroid, a long-forgotten super-civilisation awakens, one that may offer salvation, or demand human obedience.

Across the stars, ancient alliances fracture. Fleets vanish. Betrayal festers inside empires already on the brink of collapse. And on a forgotten world, a broken warrior fights to survive long enough to change the fate of civilizations.

Fast-paced, cinematic, and relentlessly tense, this is military space opera at its most ambitious.

Humanity is no longer asking for permission.

It will stand its ground.

Pre-ordering doesn’t just help the book launch strongly. It tells Amazon, quietly but powerfully, that this series matters to real readers. Every early order helps the book reach new eyes in release week, which in turn helps the entire series continue to grow. If you’ve enjoyed the story so far, pre-ordering Stand for the Galaxy is the single most effective way you can support the universe and make sure it keeps expanding. I can’t wait for you to read this one; it’s bigger, darker, and more ambitious than anything that’s come before.

Pre-Order Stand for the Galaxy on Amazon UK

Pre-Order Stand for the Galaxy on Amazon US

Until next time,

Brian

BA Gillies

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