The End of Poverty?

(5 minute read)

Imagine being told that, by America's 300th birthday in 2076, almost nobody in the world would need to live in extreme poverty.

No children going hungry because their parents couldn't afford food. No families living without clean drinking water or electricity. No elderly people forced to choose between heating their homes and buying medicine.

It sounds impossibly optimistic, doesn't it?

Yet when I look at how much humanity has already achieved, I wonder whether we're approaching a point where poverty becomes less a question of what we can produce and more a question of how we distribute it.

And that would be a remarkable change in human history.

We used to be poor because there wasn't enough

For most of history, poverty was the normal condition of human existence.

When America declared independence in 1776, even prosperous families lived without many things we now consider necessities. Most people worked extraordinarily hard simply to survive. Crop failures, illness, or unemployment could leave families destitute.

A wealthy landowner might enjoy a fine house and servants, but he couldn't purchase antibiotics, modern sanitation, refrigeration, or electric lighting.

Almost everything required enormous amounts of human labor. Growing food, making clothes, building houses, and transporting goods were difficult and expensive.

Then came the Industrial Revolution.

Machines transformed farming, factories produced goods in enormous quantities, and railways made transportation cheaper and faster. Electricity brought another revolution, followed by automobiles, aircraft, computers, and telecommunications.

An ordinary middle-class American today enjoys comforts that the richest people of 1776 couldn't have purchased at any price.

We rarely think about that because we're so accustomed to them.

The extraordinary decline in poverty

Here's a statistic that I find almost unbelievable.

According to the World Bank, approximately 2.3 billion people lived in extreme poverty in 1990. By 2025, that figure had fallen to around 830 million.

That's approximately 1.5 billion fewer people living in extreme poverty in just 35 years, despite the world's population increasing dramatically.

Perhaps even more remarkably, the proportion of humanity living in extreme poverty has fallen from roughly 40% in 1990 to around 10% today.

Think about that. In little more than a generation, we've reduced the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by approximately three-quarters.

Much of that improvement occurred in Asia. China's economic transformation alone lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, while countries across South and Southeast Asia also achieved remarkable progress.

Of course, the job is far from finished. The United Nations estimates that around 826 million people still live in extreme poverty in 2026, defined as surviving on less than $3 per day when adjusted for purchasing power. Progress has also slowed considerably over the past decade.

Nevertheless, we've already demonstrated that economic development and better technology can transform the lives of billions of people.

And we've barely begun to explore what artificial intelligence and advanced robotics might achieve.

What happens when machines do most of the work?

Imagine a factory in 2076.

Thousands of robots manufacture household appliances, clothing, and electronic equipment. Artificial intelligence coordinates production, orders supplies, identifies faults, and arranges delivery.

The factory operates almost continuously, requiring relatively few human employees.

Now imagine similar technology across much of the economy. Robots construct buildings, cultivate fields, maintain roads, and transport goods. AI provides services that currently require expensive professional assistance.

The potential reduction in production costs could be enormous. A product costing $1,000 today might eventually cost $200, perhaps considerably less.

Of course, land, scarce resources, and specialized services would still be expensive. But if machines can produce everyday necessities using far less labor, our descendants could enjoy living standards that seem extraordinarily luxurious by today's expectations.

Perhaps the real question won't be whether humanity can produce enough for everyone. It will be whether everyone can afford what humanity produces.

Could housing become affordable again?

Housing is one of the greatest obstacles to prosperity in many developed countries. Young people struggle to buy their first homes, while rents consume enormous proportions of household incomes. Yet construction remains surprisingly labor intensive.

By 2076, robotic equipment might excavate foundations, assemble prefabricated structures, install services, and complete much of the finishing work. Artificial intelligence could design homes that use materials more efficiently and consume less energy. Perhaps a comfortable home could be constructed for a fraction of today's cost.

That wouldn't automatically solve the housing problem. Land in desirable locations might remain expensive, while planning restrictions and infrastructure costs could continue limiting supply.

A robot might build a beautiful house cheaply, but it can't manufacture another acre of central Manhattan.

Nevertheless, cheaper construction could transform living standards across much of the world.

The importance of cheap energy

Almost everything we produce requires energy.

Factories need electricity, farmers require fuel and irrigation, and transporting goods consumes resources. If energy becomes substantially cheaper, the cost of producing many other things could decline with it.

Solar power, wind generation, improved batteries, and nuclear technology are already changing electricity production. Perhaps fusion will eventually contribute, although commercial success remains uncertain.

Imagine abundant electricity making desalination affordable across much of the planet. Countries struggling with water shortages might irrigate farmland, develop new industries, and support growing populations.

Cheap energy could also make recycling more economical, reducing demand for some raw materials. Combined with robotics and artificial intelligence, it could become one of the foundations of a considerably more prosperous world.

But who gets the benefits?

There's an uncomfortable question at the heart of all this.

Suppose a company replaces nine hundred employees with robots and produces twice as many goods. Society has become more productive. But what happens to those nine hundred workers?

If the additional wealth goes entirely to shareholders, ordinary people might become less secure even though the economy produces more.

Eliminating poverty will therefore require more than inventing better machines. Governments, businesses, and societies will have to decide how the benefits of automation are shared.

Perhaps people will work fewer hours while maintaining their incomes. Perhaps essential services will become dramatically cheaper, or governments will develop new ways of supporting people displaced by technology.

We discussed some possibilities in my earlier newsletter about the future of work and money. The important point is that technology can create abundance, but it cannot guarantee fairness.

That remains a human responsibility.

What might poverty mean in 2076?

Imagine a little girl born in 2026, celebrating her fiftieth birthday in 2076.

Perhaps she lives in a comfortable, energy-efficient home constructed largely by robots. Her family enjoys inexpensive electricity, clean water, and sophisticated medical care. Her children receive personalized education, while automated transportation allows them to travel without owning a car.

Food is plentiful, clothing is inexpensive, and many services once considered expensive are now provided through intelligent systems.

She might still worry about money, particularly if she lives somewhere expensive. But her standard of living could be considerably higher than that enjoyed by many wealthy people today.

Now imagine those improvements becoming available throughout Africa, Asia, and Latin America, rather than remaining concentrated in the richest countries. What an extraordinary achievement that would be!

I don't believe poverty will disappear automatically, and I certainly wouldn't predict that every country will become prosperous by 2076. Wars, corruption, instability, and inequality could prevent millions from benefiting.

But the tools available to tackle poverty may become more powerful than anything humanity has previously possessed.

For thousands of years, most people struggled because there simply wasn't enough to go around.

By America's 300th birthday, we may be approaching a world where producing enough is no longer our greatest challenge. Ensuring that everyone benefits could become the more important one.

And wouldn't it be wonderful if future generations looked back at extreme poverty as something humanity finally learned how to overcome? Not as an inevitable part of life, but as a problem we had the means and determination to solve.

What do you think? Could extreme poverty become largely a thing of the past by 2076, or will inequality prevent the benefits of technology from reaching those who need them most?

Till next time,

Brian

BA Gillies

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